🏆 2022 NCAA and other season predictions
Women’s Team Champion: Pepperdine
Pepperdine is coming off of a historic 2021 season. The Waves made the NCAA team final for the first time in program history after upsetting #1 North Carolina and ending the Tar Heels’ 48-match winning streak in the semifinals. Pepperdine ultimately lost 4-3 to Texas in a thrilling championship match.
Pepperdine has reloaded this season after the departure of their top two players with two impactful transfers: Vicky Flores of Georgia Tech and Janice Tjen of Oregon. Flores arrives in Malibu after earning All-American honors three times at Georgia Tech and ascended to the #1 doubles ranking in the country. Tjen, a now sophomore from Oregon, had a stellar freshman debut that culminated in a run to the NCAA singles semifinals and a career-high #3 ITA singles ranking. These transfers, plus freshman Savannah Broadus who was ranked #2 in her recruiting class, are joining the remainder of Pepperdine’s lineup from last season’s historic run.
By all accounts on paper, Pepperdine is the team to beat this season. This squad owns the highest Power 6 UTR in the country (66.08) by over a full point. They also have 5 players in the top 50 ITA singles ranking, more than any other school – and that doesn’t include Tjen! I expect last year’s championship loss to fuel Pepperdine through the season and help them capture their first NCAA title.
Men’s Team Champion - Tennessee
Florida: The defending champions are stacked this year. They have the defending NCAA singles champion (Riffice), the All-American champion (Shelton), and a player who finished last season at #4 in the rankings (Vale). That’s a historically strong top 3 and better than anyone else’s in the country. Also, they improved in doubles – an achilles heel for them last season – with the additions of transfer Mattias Siimar and freshman Abedallah Shelbayh. Florida flew under the radar for much of the season in 2021 and they won’t have that luxury this year. I’m predicting the gators fail to repeat as Riffice isn’t 100% healthy throughout the spring after returning from surgery and the team doesn’t boast any undefeated players at the bottom of the lineup.
Ohio State: I was *this* close to choosing Ohio State as my winner. They’ll be out for vengeance this season after they underwhelmed in 2021 and were restricted to a Big Ten schedule. The two reasons I was leaning towards Ohio State: doubles and the NCAA location. Ohio State looks to have the best doubles point in the country with teams at #1 and #2 in the ITA doubles rankings to end the fall season - those teams faced off in the All-American final! With margins so thin this year, the doubles point will be critical. Second, Illinois is hosting the NCAAs. That’s a site that Ohio State is intimately familiar with and will likely be the crowd favorite as the only Big 10 team in the mix. Location will also pay dividends if the tournament is forced to go indoors; that’s a likelihood and a strong advantage for the Buckeyes over the other top teams. Ohio State has been the college tennis bridesmaid for far too long and I’ve been burned by predicting them in the past as they’ve tripped up so many times at NCAAs so I got trigger-shy naming them as my champion.
Tennessee: Tennessee hates Florida. Tennessee has beaten Florida. Both of those facts will help motivate this Tennessee team who returns the core of last year’s lineup to claim their first program championship. I’m sure it wasn’t easy for this squad to see their rival claim a NCAA title so the Vol’s will be extremely motivated this year to knock off Florida. This prediction, though, isn’t just driven by Tennessee's hatred for Florida; this team is extremely talented. They return their top 3, bring in two stellar transfers (Hudd, Bicknell), and an impactful freshman (Mitsui). Tennessee is traditionally strong in doubles, as evidenced by their 2021 NCAA doubles title, and I expect that to continue in 2022. Then, Adam Walton at #1 can compete with anyone although probably not favored against the top teams. Monday at #2 will be one of their strong positions as well as their depth at 4-6. Whoever plays 4-6 between Bicknell, Prata, Hudd, and Mitsui will likely have Stachowiak/Furman-esque success there. Tennessee hasn’t been to a NCAA final since 2010 but that changes in 2022 as they host the trophy in Illinois.
Women’s Singles Champion: Emma Navarro, Virginia
Emma Navarro, the reigning NCAA singles champion, is the best player in women’s college tennis and it’s not particularly close. Navarro compiled a 25-1 record in her freshman debut and she avenged that one loss to Perez-Somarriba (Miami) by beating her handily in the NCAA finals. Navarro has reached a WTA career-high this fall of #233 after winning a $25K title and making the quarterfinals at a WTA $125K and three $60Ks. I can’t recall a collegian having this level of professional success while still enrolled in school. Navarro was the first freshman to win the NCAA singles title since Mallory Cecil of Duke in 2009. I expect she’ll also be the first back-to-back champion since Nicole Gibbs of Stanford in 2012 and 2013.
Men’s Singles Champion: Ben Shelton, Florida
This is a tough call as I think you can make the case for about 10 guys to win the NCAA singles title this year – many of whom play in the SEC. Shelton had a fantastic 2021 that saw him clinch the NCAA team championship, make the finals of Kalamazoo, and demonstrate success on the pro circuit which was highlighted by a second round showing in US Open qualifying. He’s also quickly ascended to the top of college tennis as he claimed the All-American title this fall in Tulsa without dropping a set. Shelton continues to improve tremendously each week and one reason I’m predicting him to win another NCAA singles crown for the Gators is because of his success specifically in Champaign, Illinois, the host of the NCAA tournament in 2022. Shelton claimed his first pro title there in July at a $25K and then qualified and made the quarterfinals at an ATP Challenger there in November. Shelton will be comfortable on Illinois’ courts and I think his talent and familiarity with the conditions put him over the finish line in May.
Women’s Doubles Champions: Starodubtseva/Sasnouskaya, Old Dominion
Tatsiana Sasnouskaya and Yuliia Starodubtseva had an excellent fall. The pair from Old Dominion made the finals of the two national tournaments this fall: the ITA All-American Championships and the ITA National Fall Champions. They lost both championship matches in a third-set match tiebreak. The two impressed in both of those runs, demonstrating a firm grasp of foundational doubles patterns. They end the fall ranked #3 and I expect to see them have a successful spring season in their Conference USA schedule. There hasn’t been a non-Power 5 doubles team win the NCAA title since Trinity (TX) in 1983 but I think this duo will be the second as they capture the crown in May.
Men’s Doubles Champions: Cash/Vocel, Ohio State
Matej Vocel has fit right into the system at Ohio State after transferring from the other OSU (Oklahoma State). He partnered with Robert Cash this fall for a 14-0 record that saw them win both the ITA All-American Championship and the ITA Fall National Championship. They were the best doubles pair in the fall and earned the ITA #1 ranking so it’s only fitting that they go for the trifecta in May. Potentially the biggest thing standing in their way is Ty Tucker lineup chicanery. It wouldn’t totally shock me if these two are split up throughout the season in doubles which would make it a tad more challenging to partner up in late May and find that same momentum from the fall.
🔮 Other Predictions
1. The USC women’s team finishes the season ranked higher than the USC men.
The men will have a rebuilding season after losing Daniel Cukierman and Riley Smith from the top of the lineup while the women are surging and can claim the #1 player in the country, Eryn Cayetano.
2. Texas women won’t go undefeated in the Big 12.
The defending NCAA champions were undefeated against conference foes last year but they’ll face tough conference competition from teams like Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and Baylor in 2022. I expect one of those teams will defeat Texas at some point in the season and I think it’s most likely to be Oklahoma. Oklahoma hasn’t beaten Texas since 2003; the streak ends in 2022.
3. Princeton women finish at a career-high ranking.
Their previous high ranking is 20. I think they crush that ranking this year on the strength of their brutal non-conference schedule and a top half of the lineup (Daria Frayman, Victoria Hu, and Brianna Shvets) that can go toe-to-toe with any other team. The Tigers are a legit Elite 8 contender this year.
4. UNC men finish the year outside the top 10 for the first time since 2013.
There are so many good teams in college tennis and UNC didn’t reload after the loss of Blumberg. I also don’t expect Hijikata to return so UNC will be faced with a serious rebuilding year.
5. Pepperdine men finish the year as the highest ranked non-Power 5 school.
The Waves had a great fall placing 3 players in the ITA top 25 and 5 players in the top 100. Their ranking will also benefit from a strong non-conference schedule.
6. Clement Chidekh wins Pac 12 Player of the Year.
Chidekh was 26-5 in pro events this summer fall including a $25K title and an ATP challenger QF. He’s continued that momentum into college this fall going 11-3 and reaching #3 in the ITA rankings. He’s the guy to beat this spring in the Pac 12.
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