ITA Kickoff Weekend Preview and Predictions

Not 1, not 2, but 120 matches of the week! This weekend marks the ceremonial start of the college tennis season as 60 men’s teams and 60’s women’s teams compete around the country for one of 15 spots at the ITA National Indoors. I’ll break down the men are women by highlighting:

• Most Interesting Region
• Locks to Advance
• Hosts on Upset Alert
• Best of the Rest
• Predictions!

If you want more ITA kickoff weekend coverage, head over to the Cracked Rackets YouTube page. We kicked off (pun intended) a weekly, LIVE women’s college tennis show. Make sure to join in for that moving forward at 6pm PT/9pm ET on Tuesdays. You can also catch the men’s show with the college tennis Holy Trinity on Thursday at 4pm PT/7pm ET! 

You can check out the Slam Tennis site for the weekend's draws, schedules, and results. As always, tweet me your thoughts at @JTweetsTennis. Now, let’s get to the breakdowns!

Women’s Kickoff Weekend

North Carolina won the 2021 ITA National Team Indoor title

Most Interesting Region

#15 Texas A&M

(1) Texas A&M vs. (4) Princeton

(2) South Carolina vs. (3) Texas Tech

The Aggies just snuck in as a host site and, as the lowest ranked host, face stiff competition on their home courts. Princeton is still in search of their first dual match win since March 2020. The Tigers recently went on the road against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Duke, and NC State. They failed to get a win so they’ll be eager to show that they are, in fact, a top team in the country this year as they take on the Aggies in Round 1. South Carolina was also scheduled to make their way through Oklahoma but Covid canceled those plans after they lost to the Sooners 2-5.  We’ll learn a lot about this Texas A&M squad as they likely will have to go through Princeton and South Carolina to qualify for Indoors. The recent, confirmed addition of Carson Branstine is a boost to the Aggies’ chances of winning their regional. 

Locks
Tier 1

I would bet my life on these teams advancing...
#1 Texas
#2 UNC
#3 Pepperdine
#4 Georgia

Tier 2

I would bet Gruskin's life on these teams advancing...
#5 UCLA

The Bruins suffered a shocking loss to LMU on Wednesday, albeit with a short-handed roster. It was their first loss to LMU in program history. UCLA will likely take on a Washington team in the second round who’s hungry to also score their first ever win over UCLA.

#6 NC State

Northwestern upset them at kick-off weekend last year. Could that happen again?

#13 Cal

The Bears are coming off of an incredible upset win against Pepperdine but will face the winner of a solid Vanderbilt vs. San Diego match in the second round

Hosts on Upset Alert
#7  Florida State

The Seminoles only have 7 players on their roster and only had 4 compete this past weekend. I expect they’ll lose to Florida.  

#14 Baylor

Baylor was upset in shocking fashion by BYU in their opening dual match of the season. They’ll have a tough match against the winner of Miami/USC, both of whom are significantly better than BYU. 

#12 Ohio State

It's an extremely tough regional in Columbus where they’ll face Oklahoma State in the first round and then the winner of LSU/Tennessee. The Buckeyes went 0-2 on their roadtrip through North Carolina against Duke and NC State so they'll be looking for quality wins. If the Buckeyes survive Oklahoma State, I think they’ll advance. 

Best of the Rest
#9 Virginia

All eyes are on a second round clash between Virginia and a young Stanford team who looks to start 2022 far better than 2021. 

#8 Duke

Both Duke and Oklahoma have looked strong to start the season and they’re on a collision course for the second round. 

#10 Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech lost their top 2 last year in Kenya Jones and Victoria Flores. Due to Covid protocols, this kickoff weekend will be the first time we see the Yellow Jackets in action so there are a lot of questions about who’s healthy and what lineup they debut. They’ll likely face a Michigan team in what should be a closely contested match.

#11 UCF

This is one of the few regionals where I could theoretically see three different teams advancing: UCF, Auburn, or Arizona State. UCF, without #1 player Valeriya Zeleva, squeaked by Penn in their opening dual match. Auburn also underwhelmed in one of their opening matches, just getting by Furman 4-3. Assuming UCF gets Zeleva back in the lineup and Auburn gets Ariana Arseneault back then I think we’ll see UCF prevail in Lake Nona. 
​​
Predictions
Schools advancing:
Texas
UNC
Pepperdine
Georgia
UCLA
NC State
Florida* (def. Florida State)
Oklahoma* (def. Duke)
Virginia
Georgia Tech
UCF
Ohio State
Cal
USC* (def. Baylor)
Texas A&M
*Non-host

Men's Kickoff Weekend

North Carolina won both titles in 2021

Most Interesting Region 

#14 Ole Miss

(1) Ole Miss vs. (4) Oklahoma

(2) Illinois vs. (3) NC State

This is the most interesting region because it’s by far the most open – any of these 4 teams could plausibly advance. Illinois will field a lot of new faces after seeing the departures last season of senior players like Zeke Clark and Aleks Kovacevic; the Illini really struggled against Ohio State last weekend so they’ll be looking to get things back on track this weekend. I expect they survive NC State and take on the host team, Ole Miss. Ole Miss looked vulnerable in their opening matches, especially in their 4-3 win against Alabama. Oklahoma enters the weekend the most match-tough; they’re 5-0 so far on the season. I don’t think that early season experience is enough to pull off the upset over Ole Miss but it could pay off in a consolation dogfight. I expect Ole Miss to squeak through their region. 

Locks
Tier 1

I would bet my life on these teams advancing...

#1 Florida
#2 Baylor
#4 Tennessee
#5 TCU
#7 Virginia
#9 Georgia

Tier 2

I would bet Gruskin's life on these teams advancing...

#3 Texas

The Longhorns should get through this easily with their depth but I expect Columbia to give them a good match in the first round. 

#21 Ohio State

The only non-host lock, but Ohio State is basically a lock to advance from the UNC regional. Without Rinky Hijikata on UNC’s roster, they’ll struggle throughout the lineup to compete with the top teams. 

Hosts on Upset Alert
#6 North Carolina

Like I mentioned in the locks section, there’s very little chance the defending ITA National Indoor champions advance to the R16 in Seattle. They’ll face a Northwestern team that’s better than their ranking and if UNC manages to win that they’ll get the Buckeyes. The Buckeyes looked like a top 5 team after easily dispatching Illinois; I think they’ll do the same to UNC.

#11 UCF

UCF has not looked strong to open the season. After losing some key contributors from last season’s lineup, they’ve struggled to replicate 2021’s success. Their losses to Georgia and Florida, while both top teams, weren’t particularly close. Conversely, Stanford looked strong -- even without Tristan Boyer -- in their win over Pepperdine. You can pencil Stanford in to advance.

#15 Mississippi State

This region is one of the least interesting as it’s all SEC teams. Kentucky is the best team on paper and should have no issue advancing out of Starkville.

#8 Texas A&M

It’s a rebuilding year in College Station as the Aggies lost their top 3 players from last year’s lineup and brought in a handful of untested freshmen. Arizona is the team to watch in this region; they looked awesome in their upset over Texas but followed that up with a disappointing loss to Pepperdine. I expect Arizona to rebound and advance out of this region. 

Best of the Rest
#10 USC

The Trojans host Pepperdine, Denver, and Harvard in a very intriguing region. USC lost their top 2 from last season’s roster and has reloaded with a lot of new, but untested additions. They’ll face a good test in Harvard in the first round and then likely get Pepperdine in the second round. These two teams are very familiar with each other; Pepperdine upset USC last season in the regular season but USC won when they faced off in the NCAA team tournament. Pepperdine has a lot of momentum as they're coming off a great PAC 12 win over Arizona. I expect this second round match to be one of the closest of the weekend. 

#12 Wake Forest

Wake Forest hosts Notre Dame, Rice, and Michigan. Their toughest test will probably come in the first round against Michigan. I thought Wake Forest looked really strong in their 4-3 loss to Tennessee and conversely, Michigan has struggled out of the gates this season. I expect Wake Forest will advance pretty easily from this region. 

#13 South Carolina

The Gamecocks host Duke, Liberty, and LSU. They’ll face a familiar SEC foe in LSU in the first round. Duke has a talented team this year, as demonstrated by fall success, but it won’t be enough to prevent South Carolina from advancing to Seattle. 
​​
Predictions
Schools advancing:
Florida
Baylor
Texas
Tennessee
TCU
Ohio State* (def. UNC)
Virginia
Arizona* (def. Texas A&M)
Georgia
USC
Stanford* (def. UCF)
Wake Forest
South Carolina
Ole Miss
Kentucky* (def. Mississippi State)
*Non-host