Matches of the Week - Week #2

We’re back for a second round of Matches of the Week! The first addition was pretty successful as I predicted both Florida (def. Texas) and Oklahoma (def. Princeton) would win. I was slightly off on scorelines; both were 4-3 but hey, a win’s a win right? As always, let me know your thoughts @JTweetsTennis.

Men: #10 Wake Forest at #1 Tennessee 
Time: Tuesday, January 25th at 1pm ET

Overview

Tennessee is coming off a very impressive away victory against then #5 TCU and is now the #1 team in the country. The Vols rolled into Fort Worth and faced a TCU team that was high on confidence as the Horned Frogs had upset #1 Florida two days prior. Even after they dropped the doubles point – something foreign to Tennessee – the Vols found four singles points throughout the lineup despite not having expected starters Martim Prata and Blaise Bicknell. Tennessee will now take on an untested Wake Forest team in Knoxville. Wake Forest has used double headers early in the season to get playing time for everyone on their large (17 players!) roster. By the time they face Tennessee, Wake Forest will be 8-0 having played 4 days of double headers. None of those matches have been competitive, though, and we still haven’t seen Wake Forest’s roster at full strength. There are a lot of questions surrounding this Wake Forest team and I hope we’ll get some answers this Sunday.

3 key questions

1. Karimov is now eligible. Is Bicknell next?

Questions and rumors swirled once it was unveiled that Blaise Bicknell wasn’t in the lineup against TCU. Bicknell, part of last year’s national championship team at Florida, announced his transfer to Tennessee early in the fall of 2021. That announcement, however, came after he had played two singles matches and a doubles match at Florida’s Gator Invite in September. Many assumed Bicknell would have to sit for a season at Tennessee since it was believed a player couldn’t compete for two schools in the same academic year; Tennessee folks were adamant, though, that he’d be eligible. So…now we wait. Is his eligibility being appealed? And, if so, how long are we in limbo? It's not a fun situation for anyone and Tennessee will have a lot of egg on their face if Bicknell doesn't play this season. Bicknell is on the entry list for next week's $25K in Weston, FL (shoutout to @PayersPlayers for the info!) which all but confirms we won't see him against Wake Forest.

Bicknell isn’t the only one who has dealt with eligibility issues. We finally saw 23-year-old Jurabek Karimov play for Wake Forest on Wednesday in the team’s 6th match of the season. Karimov enters Wake Forest with an ATP career-high ranking of #426 and having played a full ITF pro circuit schedule for several years prior. I think Karimov’s eligibility is why we saw Wake use 4 competitive days on cupcake double headers, much more excessive than they’ve scheduled in the past. It’s possible Karimov had to sit for 5 matches before he was eligible. 

2. Will Squire’s departure hurt Wake as badly as Botzer’s?

Last February, Virginia announced that Bar Botzer, who played #1 for Wake Forest in 2020,  would be skipping the 2020 season and transferring and playing for the Wahoos in the 2021-2022 season. That was a huge blow to Wake Forest and bumped them from being a contender in 2021. In fact, it ended up being the first time Wake Forest didn’t make the NCAA R16 since 2014. Similarly this season, Henri Squire decided to turn pro and not return to Wake Forest. Squire was Wake’s #1 player last season and went 17-6 at that position. Every year we praise Wake’s depth but that didn’t pay off last season. Who can step up for Wake and successfully play #1?

3. Why does Wake Forest have so many players?

Sorry - just had to raise it. 17 players? For what? Not only does Wake carry an insane roster size but the team page is a revolving door. Take, for example, Togan Makzume. Makzume was added to the roster last week as a freshman from Turkey. There was no Parsa Bomb. There wasn’t even an announcement from the school. Maybe it’s because he has a ITF junior ranking of #678 and a UTR of 10.83? By UTR, he’s the 2,269th best player in college…

Projected Lineups

These will be much more reliable as we progress throughout the season. This first iteration is a combination of UTR and my best guess. I’ll also include doubles moving forward. UTR in parentheses.

For Tennessee, I think it’s unlikely we see the exact same lineup as last weekend against TCU but, without knowing things like health, I’ll use last weekend’s as a placeholder. I wouldn’t be surprised, though, if Tennessee flipped Walton and Monday; I think we’ll see them interchange this duo at the top to give Monday reps at #1 and also have a valid case to flip the order when they deem it fitting for certain matchups. Additionally, if Prata is healthy he’ll most likely slot in between 3 and 5. Harper and Wallner appear healthy since they played in doubles so it wouldn’t surprise me to see either of them get the call at the bottom of the lineup. The lineup Tennessee played against TCU will see a lot of movement in the coming weeks and I think that likely starts with Wake Forest.

For Wake Forest…who knows. Coach Bresky could really play Karimov anywhere –  he hadn’t played a competitive match since April of 2021 until he debuted on Wednesday. I think Schnaitter, the transfer from Azusa Pacific, plays high in the lineup based on some of his fall results. But truly, it wouldn’t surprise me to see any of the Wake players at any position.

Prediction

Tennessee 4-3.

On paper, Wake Forest has the depth to knock off Tennessee. That will be especially true if Tennessee plays the same lineup they did against TCU; they’ll be vulnerable at #5 and #6. But I don’t think Tennessee allows Wake Forest to get a victory in Knoxville. I expect Tennessee to use the home crowd advantage to win doubles and then get wins from Walton, Monday, and Mitsui. Wake will find a few wins at the bottom of the lineup.

Women: #10 Ohio State at #8 North Carolina State 
Time: Tuesday, January 18th at 2pm CT

Overview

This was a tough call. If last weekend was the de-facto kickoff for the men, this weekend is when the women shine. There are so many intriguing women’s matches this weekend, including highlights like #2 Pepperdine vs. #9 Cal and #4 Georgia vs. #3 North Carolina. Ultimately, I had to go with the showdown in Raleigh since we’re guaranteed to see a rematch of Pepperdine vs. Cal in March and it wouldn’t surprise me to see a UNC/UGA matchup at ITA Indoors. I’m sure all four of those schools will be featured in upcoming “Matches of the Week.” I have more questions about Ohio State and NC State than I do about the four other teams but I’ll certainly be intrigued to see all of their opening lineups to start the year!

NC State, coming off a program-first NCAA semifinal in 2021, kicks off their 2022 campaign with a bang. They’ll face #23 Princeton on Saturday before facing off against #10 Ohio State. Ohio State also faces a tough test on their opening weekend. They’ll take on #6 Duke before making the drive to Raleigh for Sunday’s match. This is a big opportunity for both teams to secure an early-season non-conference win which can pay dividends in the rankings as the season progresses.

3 key questions

1. Is Alana Smith healthy?

Despite losing two of their top three players from last season, NC State’s returners have clearly stepped up (we’ll get to their new additions soon!). Jaeda Daniel (#8), Alana Smith (#24), and Abigail Rencheli (#25) all had excellent falls and ended in the top 25 of the ITA rankings. Only one school (North Carolina) had more players finish in the top 25. Alana Smith, in particular, also had success on the pro tour during the fall. She was 6-3 (including qualifying) at three events and, notably, made the second round of an $80K by beating former WTA #105 Whitney Osuigwe. The NC State senior, however, was last pictured in a boot this fall and didn’t play last weekend for NC State at the Miami hidden dual. NC State needs Alana Smith healthy to have a shot at replicating last season’s success.

2. How good are NC State’s new additions?

As I mentioned, NC State lost two of their top three last season in Anna Rogers and Adriana Reami. Rogers and Reami were also NC State’s winningest players in program history – that’s a tough duo to replace. But the Pack has attempted to reload with the addition of five new players: 3 transfers and 2 freshmen. All three transfers are known quantities in college; two of them competed at the #1 position for their prior schools. Those two, Sophie Abrams (4-8) and Sara Nayar (1-7) had a very disappointing fall so I’m curious if their past experience helps them turn things around in the spring. January addition, Priska Nugroho, is one to watch. The freshman was ranked #9 in ITF juniors and had a decent showing this past weekend in her first collegiate event taking Charlotte Chavatipon of Texas to three sets. NC State will have a lot of healthy competition for the bottom three positions if Alana Smith is in the lineup.

3. Was Ohio State’s depth last season overrated?

Luna Dormet and Lucia Marzal were 19-1 and 22-2 in dual matches last year, respectively. Those wins in the bottom of the lineup helped carry Ohio State to a lot of dual match victories last season as the Buckeyes struggled at #2 and #3 singles. Neither Dormet (3-2) nor Marzal (12-7) seemed to carry their dual season momentum into the fall; both took surprising losses. It’s possible that the Buckeyes find other answers in those lower lineup positions like freshman Sydni Ratliff but I’ll certainly be monitoring how these two teams stack up at #4-#6 singles as they both need to have elite records there to compete against the best teams.

Projected Lineups

I don’t think Alana Smith will play for NC State this weekend. I think if she was close to being healthy then she would’ve competed in last weekend’s hidden dual at Miami. In her absence, I think the top 3 are locked with Daniel, Rencheli, and Nugroho. At #4 and #5, I expect we’ll see Abrams and Miller in some order. Then, fighting for the #6 spot will be Rajecki and Nayar. I think Rajecki gets the nod given the lack of wins Nayar has gathered over the last few months. When Smith returns to the lineup and pushes everyone down a slot, this NC State team will be very dangerous with Nugroho, Abrams, and Miller holding down the bottom of the lineup.

I’m going out on a limb here with Ohio State. Outside of Cantos at #1, everything else feels like a question mark as many of their players haven’t shown good form. Notably, I’m not even including Kolie Allen in the lineup based on her very underwhelming fall form. Boulais also struggled in the fall but get a good win over Duke’s #15 Chloe Beck so I think she stays at her #2 position from last season.

Prediction

NC State 4-3

Despite NC State having the home court advantage, I actually like Ohio State to take the doubles point. They have two successful teams with Boulais/Allen and Cantos/Ratliff. Their third team is likely the experienced duo of Marzal/Dormet. With the absence of Alana Smith from the NC State lineup and the January additions of Miller and Nugroho, I think it’ll take a bit of time before NC State is comfortable in doubles. In singles, I like Cantos (OSU) over Daniel at #1 but like NC State's chances at #2 and #3. I think NC State finds a way to get two additional wins at the bottom of the lineup to get to four singles points and win the match.