New series: Matches of the Week!

Welcome to a new series aptly named “Matches of the Week”! Very creative, I know. This dual match season, I’ll write each week about two upcoming matches I’m particularly excited about or intrigued by and make some predictions. Share your feedback on these matches on Twitter @JTweetsTennis, any suggestions you have for this series moving forward, or submit matches you want me to preview!

Men: #1 Florida at #3 Texas 
Time: Sunday, January 16th at 12pm CT

Overview

We kick off the dual match season with a bang: a rematch of the 2021 NCAA semifinal. This is the third straight year Florida and Texas will face off in January. Texas is 2-0 in those two prior matches but maybe the third time’s the charm for the defending national champions? This is the highest-ranked matchup of the weekend with Florida ranked #1 and Texas at #3 as voted by the coaches.

3 key questions

1. Who’s healthy?

Both teams have struggled with significant injuries to top players. Florida’s Sam Riffice, the reigning NCAA singles champion, didn’t play a match after his US Open main draw debut until a January Universal Tennis prize money event. Similarly, Texas’s #1 player Eliot Spizzirri was out for three months after the US Open qualifying and didn’t compete for Texas in this past weekend’s hidden dual. Both players are critical to their team’s success so I’ll be curious to see if we see both play and, if so, what level they’re at. 

2. What position do Shelton and Bailly play?

Everyone’s curious to see where Ben Shelton plays in the lineup. He’s ranked #2 in the ITA rankings after winning the All-American title and he had impressive pro results throughout the fall. With that said, he’s competing for spots against the defending NCAA singles champion (Riffice) and Duarte Vale, a former ITA #1. For Texas, I’m most curious to see where freshman addition Pierre-Yves Bailly slots in. Bailly joined the Longhorns in January and has only played two singles matches (1-1 record, beat UCF’s #16 Hilderbrand, lost to UGA’s McCormick). His level will tell us a lot about just how good this Texas team can be.

3. How good is Florida’s doubles lineup?

The worst of Florida’s seven points last year by win percentage was doubles (60%). They’ve experimented with 15 pairs this fall but that doesn’t even include Riffice or Vale who skipped the fall season entirely. Two of their new roster additions, transfer Mattias Siimar and freshman Abedallah Shelbayh, are particularly strong in doubles. I’m curious to see who gets paired together to start the season and if there appears to be a foundation to build on to increase that 60% winning percentage. 

Projected Lineups

These will be much more reliable as we progress throughout the season. This first iteration is a combination of UTR and my best guess. I’ll also include doubles moving forward. UTR in parentheses.

I think Coach Shelton tries to avoid putting Ben at #1 out of the gate because he'll essentially be locked in there once he starts winning. Coach Shelton can still use the excuse that Vale skipped the fall and Riffice is coming back from injury. For Texas, I believe Bailly will end up playing higher at season’s end but it makes sense to work his way into the lineup as he starts his collegiate career.

Prediction

Florida 5-2. Texas has clearly proven they can get the better of Florida early in the season, but I think that streak ends this year. Florida can match Texas’s singles depth and firepower at the top of the lineup. Texas’s best chance is to win doubles, a healthy Spizzirri at #1, a sneaky Bailly lower in the lineup, and a win over a rusty Riffice. I think Florida will be up for the task and prevail.

Women: #23 Princeton at #19 Oklahoma 
Time: Tuesday, January 18th at 2pm CT

Overview

These are two teams I’m really intrigued by this season and we’re getting a matchup at the start! This will be Princeton’s first dual match since March 2020. Despite that, the team looks better than ever and had an excellent fall with their top players Daria Frayman and Victoria Hu. Since they’ve missed almost two years of competition, the Tigers have scheduled a gauntlet of road trips, including to Oklahoma. It’s going to be fascinating to see this Princeton team progress. For Oklahoma, this is a great test at home. The Sooners have added a ton of talent this year including freshmen, transfers, and newly eligible players. They have the second-highest Power 6 UTR in the Big 12 behind Texas and I’m expecting big things from this diverse Sooner roster.

3 key questions

1. How deep is Princeton?
Princeton has a top 2 that can compete with any team in the country. Daria Frayman is ranked #4 in the ITA rankings after an excellent fall that saw her reach the National Fall Championship final. Freshman Victoria Hu also had a strong fall; she won the All-American consolation title and is ranked #23. If you’re Princeton you feel pretty good about those two at the top and Shvets and Howard, both with prior collegiate success, at #3 and #4. The question then becomes how will Princeton hang at the bottom of the lineup? They’ll turn to a lot of players who are untested and competing in their first dual season.

2. Is Oklahoma healthy?
Both Dana Guzman and Carmen Corley’s fall ended in injury and neither have played since. I don’t know how serious the injuries were but both are critical to Oklahoma’s lineup. Guzman, in particular, was poised to move into the team’s top 2. I’ll be watching for both of their health and level’s entering this match. 

3. How good are the new additions?
For Oklahoma, they recently signed freshman Anchisa Chanta from Thailand. The 19-year-old lefty arrived in Norman this January with a WTA career-high ranking of #586. I’ll not only be curious to see where she is in the lineup but also how good she looks against Princeton as she adjusts to college tennis.

Projected Lineups

I expect the Princeton lineup to follow their UTR exactly with the exception for Leena Bennetto getting the call at #6 over fellow freshman Skylar Grishuk (10.13) given Bennetto played more in the fall and had successful results. The Oklahoma lineup is tricky; it wouldn’t surprise me to see any of Sleeth, Corley, or Guzman at #1. Sleeth had a successful fall and I’m unsure of Guzman’s injury status so that’s why I have them in the order I do. I think Chanta and Corley play #4 or #5 in some order with Pisareva slotting in at #6 over equally capable Emma Staker and Marelina Podlinska.

Prediction

Oklahoma 5-2. This will be Princeton’s first dual match since March 2020; that fact alone will be tough to overcome. They have a lot of players who aren’t familiar with the dual match format and will need some time to adjust (or simply remember!) what that’s like. They’re also playing in Norman so that’s another big advantage to Oklahoma. Lastly, after a few years of no competition, I expect Princeton will struggle especially in doubles as that usually takes longer to learn and develop chemistry. They didn’t have much doubles success in the fall and it’s an especially strong area for Oklahoma so I anticipate that to be a quick point for Oklahoma and then the Sooners find 4 singles wins, likely at #3-#6.