National Women’s Team Indoor Championship Preview
- Immediate takeaways
- Most interesting first round matches
- Seeds on upset alert
- Predictions
Before we dive in, you can follow all the action this weekend from the ITA tournament site and, more excitingly, join the conversation by watching the Cracked Racquets YouTube coverage throughout the tournament. Cracked Racquets will cover the first ball to last on YouTube with Alex Gruskin and Mike Cation of ATP Challenger tour fame on the call. Join me in the YouTube comments as we track all the action!
Oklahoma is the biggest draw loser.
Oklahoma women’s tennis is on the rise; this is the first time the program has qualified for Indoors. Sadly for the Sooners, I think they got dealt a bad hand. First, they’ll get a win over Wisconsin which won’t give them any significant ranking points as Wisconsin is by far the lowest ranked team in the draw and only qualified because they’re the host. Second, they’ll likely play Texas in the QFs, a team they’ll see at least two more times throughout the season. If they lose that, they’ll get the loser of Pepperdine/Cal/Texas A&M, another brutal match. Only one team will win Indoors but many others will get solid ranked wins that will help their ranking moving forward. It’s likely that the Sooners come away from Indoors with only a win over Wisconsin and no ranking boost.
Why is Georgia seeded #3?
I’m not sure why the Coaches Poll/ITA has seeded Georgia so high. The 2021 NCAA quarterfinalist has only played two matches this year and they’re extremely young and untested; they’re starting two freshmen in their top 3. Compare Georgia to a team like Virginia who returns the 2021 NCAA Singles Champion, Emma Navarro, and has knocked off a resurgent Stanford team and then secured a top 25 win over UCF without Navarro. Georgia has one the weakest resumes in the entire field – it’s aggressively bold to seed them #3 on the strength and potential of untested freshmen.
Can we swap Pepperdine and NC State?
By not seeding the #9-16 teams, the ITA has some flexibility in the first round matches. I believe the draw is done randomly with the exception of avoiding conference matchups in the first round. If I could place the teams myself, I would’ve swapped Pepperdine and NC State. I think this would’ve evened out the halves of the draw as well as the quarters. In addition, it avoids a potential QF matchup between Pepperdine and Cal – a match we just saw two weeks ago.
North Carolina’s quarter of the draw is the toughest. All four teams, with the right draw, could plausibly advance to the semifinals. The North Carolina vs. Ohio State is a blockbuster. #2 North Carolina, the back-to-back defending champions, has been exceptional at Indoors. They haven’t been particularly tested to start the season. They cruised through Kickoff weekend as expected and then captured a 5-2 win over Michigan in Ann Arbor. Ohio State, on the other hand, has had a very tough strength of schedule to start the season. After losing road matches against Duke and NC State, they rebounded with a very impressive Kickoff weekend getting wins over Tennessee and Oklahoma State. The Buckeyes looked dominant in those matches. If the Buckeyes want to pull off the upset, they’re going to need to get the doubles point, #1 and #2 singles, and one more.
(6) NC State vs. Auburn
I’m fascinated to see how these two teams matchup. NC State has, rightfully, gotten a lot of praise for their stellar start to the season. The Wolfpack is 8-0 with notable wins over Princeton, Ohio State, Wake Forest, Tennessee, and South Carolina. Impressively, they’re having this success without their #1 singles player, Alana Smith. Smith is out with an ankle injury and won’t play at Indoors. NC State has seen successful moves up the lineup from Jaeda Daniel Abigail Rencheli. The duo went from playing #4 and #5 last season to holding down the top 2 positions. Additionally, the Wolfpack is playing excellent doubles this season. They’ve yet to drop a doubles point and are a combined 16-1 in doubles in finished matches. They’ll face an Auburn team who has quietly amassed a 7-0 record to start the season. Their strength of schedule isn’t close to NC State's but they’ve been impressive at every position and should hang with the Wolfpack to make this a close contest. I expect the Wolfpack to prevail but I’m excited to see how Auburn does against its toughest test this season.
(7) Virginia vs. Florida
Virginia didn’t qualify for the Indoors last season so this will be the first year we get to see Emma Navarro compete against elite #1s on consecutive days outside of the NCAA individual tournament. Her first test will come against Florida’s McCartney Kessler. Overall, this Virginia team has looked really strong. They’ve relied heavily on their top 3 singles players: Navarro, Chervinsky, and Subhash – perhaps the strongest top 3 in the country. But, somewhat surprisingly, they’ve also found victories at #4-6 when it mattered: Sofia Munera at #4 won versus Stanford and Sara Ziodato and Hibah Shaikah won at #5 and #6 against UCF. This matchup is intriguing to me because I think Florida will take the doubles point. The Gators are undefeated in doubles this season; they haven’t lost a match at #2 or #3. That means Virginia will need to find 4 singles victories. It’s not impossible but I think Florida matches up well against Virginia. The strength of the Florida lineup is at #4 and #5 where they have experienced transfers Emma Shelton and Carly Briggs. Both of them are undefeated on the year. Lock this one in as one of the longest first round matches. I think Virginia finds three wins at the top of the lineup and, ultimately, finds a fourth to escape 4-3.
Seeds on Upset Alert
(4) California vs. Texas A&M
Cal’s ranking skyrocketed after they secured the win of the season: knocking off then #3 Pepperdine in Malibu. That luster has since worn off. The Bears dropped a 5-2 decision to Michigan on Tuesday in Ann Arbor. Cal won doubles but dropped five singles to Michigan, a team who didn’t even qualify for Indoors. You can potentially chalk that up to being inexperienced playing indoors but they better be ready for Texas A&M on Friday. The Aggies have looked strong with the transfer addition of Carson Branstine who now plays #1 for the Aggies. The Aggies aren’t an indoor team either but they have the talent to compete with Cal at each position. Cal is definitely the seed most likely to lose their first round.
(3) Georgia vs. Washington
As previously mentioned, we haven’t seen enough of Georgia so this match is just as likely to be a dawg fight (double pun intended) as it is a blowout. Here’s why I like Washington: this is a veteran team who’s going to be hungry to show they belong on the national stage. After upsetting UCLA in LA for the first time in program history, the Huskies will ride into Madison on a wave of confidence. Additionally, while this team doesn’t have the national experience that Georgia has, they have many more veteran players up and down the lineup. Georgia will debut two freshmen in their top 3. If Washington is going to pull off the upset, they’ll need to take a quick doubles point from an untested Georgia team and find wins at 1, 3, and 4.
(1) Texas vs. USC
It’s not lost on me that the three seeds on upset alert here are three of the top four seeds – parity is the name of the game! I don’t expect Texas to lose this match, but I do think it’s an extremely tricky first round opponent for a few reasons. First, USC has the firepower to match Texas at the top of the lineup. Cayetano, Ewing, and Han matchup well with Texas’s sophomore trio of Stearns, Collins, and Chavatipon. Ewing recently defeated Collins at the ITA National Fall Championships and Chavatipon is coming off a loss to Baylor, something none of these USC players had when they faced Baylor at the Kickoff weekend. Here’s where it gets interesting: we’ll likely see all freshmen from both teams at #4 and #5. Texas’s freshmen are much more highly touted so you have to lean in that direction but hey, it’s everyone’s first Indoors so anything is possible. I like Texas to get through, if just on the fact that they’re way more experienced indoors, but expect a Trojan fight.
Predictions
I expect North Carolina captures their 3rd straight National Indoors title. They'll use a recipe of doubles and wins at #2-#5 singles, as well as their comfortability playing indoors, to send a statement that the Tarheels may have lost their stellar fifth years but the program is here to stay.
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