Matches of the Week - Week #8
I’m really excited for this week’s matches. Both the men and women are fully into the regular season with many schools kicking off conference action this week. There were so many matches to choose from this week that I decided to let you all vote and pick the one you thought was most worthy of being featured. On the men’s side, Florida vs. Kentucky won in a landslide (52%). For the women, it was a virtual three-way tie but UVA/Duke (31%) narrowly beat out Stanford/Pepperdine (29%) and Miami/NC State (27%).
Tweet me @JTweetsTennis with how you think these matches will pan out and what other matches you’re watching closely this weekend!
Time: Sunday, March 6th at 1pm ET
A top 10 matchup to kickstart SEC play? Yes, please!
Florida, the 2021 NCAA champion, opens its SEC weekend with two top 10 opponents: #6 South Carolina and #9 Kentucky. Despite being the lower ranked opponent, I expect Kentucky will be the tougher match for Florida. The Gators get to face South Carolina at home in Gainesville before they make the road trip to Lexington. You can expect a rowdy home crowd for the Wildcats, potentially amplified if they play this match indoors. The weather calls for 80% rain on Sunday and that will heavily favor Kentucky as it will intensify the crowd noise and elongate the match as Kentucky only has four indoor courts.
Florida has had an inauspicious start to the season. They’re 7-2 but haven’t looked particularly strong in doubles or even at the top 3 singles positions which, on paper, should be the strength of this roster. They certainly haven’t looked like the dominant team who captured last year's NCAA title without dropping a singles match.
It also hasn’t been an ideal start to the season for Kentucky. They’ve had two important matches canceled (Virginia and Northwestern) and had to play two of their three matches at ITA Indoors without their #1 player Liam Draxl (Kentucky lost both of those matches). Kentucky will be very eager to take on the Gators at home and earn the upset to set the foundation for a season with high expectations.
3 key questions
1. Will the real Liam Draxl please stand up?
Liam Draxl hasn’t looked like himself this year. Last year, the Kentucky sophomore from Canada was the #1 player in the country. He compiled a 25-3 record in singles and ended the season as the ITA Player of the Year. Draxl took the fall off to play pro events and really hit his stride in December as he took home back-to-back $15K titles in Mexico. His ATP ranking is currently #536 which is a career-high. Surprisingly, Draxl hasn’t seemed to find his 2021 form yet this dual season. He’s 4-1; the loss came to #39 Broska of Mississippi State. He’s also struggled against opponents from VCU and Louisville. Kentucky has a lot of talent at the top of the lineup but any hope of capturing an SEC title will require a 2021 repeat performance from Draxl.
2. How did Florida not fix doubles?
Florida had one weakness last season: doubles. Their worst singles position (#3) had a 73% win percentage. Doubles? 60%. They were 0-3 in the doubles point in the SEC tournament and 3-3 in the NCAA tournament. Those 3 points in the NCAA tournament were the only points they lost all tournament. Despite this glaring vulnerability and bringing in Mattias Siimar as a transfer from Michigan, formerly the #2 doubles player in the country, they’re still struggling in doubles. It’s early in the season but their doubles win percentage is worse this season: 52%. The talent on paper is there: Shelton/Riffice at #1 doubles should be better than 4-4 at the #1 position.
3. Does Kentucky have any answers at #6?
Kentucky’s strength in singles is at the top of the lineup. Draxl, Diallo, Hurrion, and Musitelli (in that order) are a very formidable quartet. Lapadat at #5 has played the position well and is 4-0 there this year. But it doesn’t seem like they have a #6 player who can hang with these elite teams. #6 is their lowest win percentage position this year (43%) and it’s been a rotating cast of guys (Merer, Zemel, Leblanc) as they search for answers. No team can afford to be going into a match 0-1 given how thin the margins are this year. Kentucky gets to test how well their depth stacks up on Sunday against one of the deepest squads in the country.
Projected Lineups
Players in bold are projected to win by UTR.
Prediction
Time: Friday, March 4th at 6:30pm ET
Virginia is underranked at #12. They’ve had a strong start to the season going 10-1 with the lone loss coming at the aforementioned ITA Indoors against UNC. Virginia has beaten quality teams like Stanford, Georgia, and UCF – those wins will all appreciate as those teams get more wins throughout the season. You know what you’re getting from Virginia with Emma Navarro at the top of the lineup. The 2021 NCAA singles champion is 33-1 in collegiate singles matches and currently ranked #204 in the WTA rankings; she’s the best player in college tennis and it’s not close. But, playing without freshman Melodie Collard this season, I was worried even Navarro couldn’t carry this Virginia team. That hasn’t been the case. Virginia has rallied in doubles going 24-6 in dual doubles matches and found notable success from first-year Elaine Chervinsky and fourth-year Sofia Munera. The match calculus is limited for this Virginia squad but it’s tough to bet against a team with the best player (and arguably top three) in the country.
Similar to Virginia, Duke’s strength on paper comes at the top of their lineup. The Blue Devils made the Cracked Racquets Top 10 based on that strength and the addition of two blue chip freshmen. However, it’s tough to know what to make of this Duke squad so far – we haven’t seen them play much after they were upset by Oklahoma 4-2 at the ITA Regionals. That loss has certainly appreciated over time as does Duke’s early season win over Ohio State. But Duke currently is a tale of two very different squads: Georgia Drummy (#1), Chloe Beck (#2), and Margaryta Bilokin (#4) are 17-1 this dual season. Meanwhile, fifth-year Kelly Chen and the freshmen duo of Emma Jackson and Ellie Coleman are 8-9. That won’t cut it against the top teams and this match against Virginia should give a good indication of that trio’s level, particularly at the bottom of the lineup where – in theory – Duke should expose Virginia’s lack of depth.
1. Is Sofia Munera the answer for Virginia at #4?
Virginia’s not one of those teams with thin margins between all of their singles players; there’s a big drop off in level after #3. This chasm was their achilles heel last year and I was optimistic that freshman Melodie Collard would fill that gap at #4 but she hasn’t competed this season. However, to my surprise, Sofia Munera has stepped up and, despite an underwhelming 8-7 record last season, has played really well at #4. The fourth-year from Colombia is 5-1 at #4 (8-3 overall) with key wins at ITA indoors over #106 Shelton (Florida) and Coppoc (Georgia). Virginia would much rather have her at #5 or #6 but if she continues at this level, she’ll give Virginia a shot at taking a fourth singles point against most teams. Her match against Duke’s Bilokin is a must-win.
2. Can Virginia trade for Duke’s #3 doubles?
The doubles results of these two teams couldn’t be more different this season. Virginia has had a ton of success at #1 and #2; they’re 18-2. The hoos struggle at #3, though, as they’ve gone 6-4. Duke is the opposite! The Blue Devils are 5-6 at #1 and #2 but undefeated (7-0) at #3. We might see some pretty lopsided doubles scores as these two face off.
3. Is it just freshman jitters?
Duke brought in the #3 freshmen class in the country with two blue chips from the midwest: Ellie Coleman of Michigan and Emma Jackson of Illinois. Coleman reached an ITF junior ranking of #24 in January 2021 and Jackson was a top 5 US recruit throughout her high school years. Jackson (pictured), in particular, really thrived in the collegiate fall season. She led the team in wins going 10-5 with all 5 losses coming to players ranked in the top 80 of the ITA singles rankings. Since the dual season began, however, both have struggled. Jackson and Coleman are 3-3 and 3-4 this season, respectively. They started the season at #4 and #5 and have moved their way down to #5 and #6. Perhaps it’s freshman jitters playing in their first dual season but Duke needs this talented duo to turn things around quickly if they want to stay a top 4 team in the ACC.
Rather than writing this article, I could have just shown you these UTRs. Duke is favored at the bottom (rinse, repeat for most of Virginia’s matches this year) and Virginia needs to find three from the top 4 if they get doubles.
These lineups are in order of their most recent matches last weekend but we could see some deviations. In particular, Virginia clearly hasn’t settled on their bottom 2 between Ziodato, O’Dell, and Shaikh (UTR 9.98). O’Dell didn’t play at Indoors but most recently played above Ziodato and Shaikh. Virginia will either keep O’Dell at #5 as a placeholder to slot Ziodato down to #6 or pull her entirely like they did at Indoors and play Shaikh at #6. One thing to note: Chervinsky didn’t play this past weekend and was wearing a boot so it’s possible she’s not healthy for this weekend.
Duke made a move this past weekend by swapping Bilokin and Jackson at #4 and #5; both were 2-0 on the weekend so I expect we’ll see that lineup this weekend.
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