Matches of the Week - April 8th
Welcome back! It’s been about a month since I’ve previewed a few matches of the week; the last few weeks have slipped away from me, but hopefully you’ve enjoyed The Deciding Point shows each week! This week, I took to Twitter again to poll you all about which matches you wanted to preview and the answers were pretty clear on both the men’s and women’s side! We’ll cover a SEC showdown for the men and an ACC battle on the women’s side.
You can catch Cracked Racquets coverage of the Tennessee/Kentucky match via their SEC CourtCast. Links are available on each of the school’s sites and aggregated here.
Tweet me @JTweetsTennis with how you think these matches will pan out and what other matches you’re watching closely this weekend!
Men: #5 Tennessee at #12 Kentucky
Time: Friday, April 8th at 5pm ET
Time: Friday, April 8th at 5pm ET
Overview
Both Tennessee and Kentucky enter this match needing a good conference win. Tennessee, the 2021 SEC tournament champion, is a shocking 5-3 in conference play after losing three straight matches in mid-March. Kentucky is marginally better at 6-2 but is coming off two straight losses to Virginia (non-SEC) and South Carolina. It’s very likely that this match determines who gets the #4 seed in the SEC tournament.
3 key questions
1. Is Monday healthy?
This is the million dollar question for a Tennessee team that’s already incurred some setbacks this season. Blaise Bicknell – quite embarrassingly for the Tennessee program – was never eligible and Martim Prata, Tennessee’s #3 player last season, has struggled to find that same form this season. The third blow of not having Monday healthy was clearly one that knocked Tennessee out of the national title contender conversation. They lost to Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. Monday hasn’t played singles for Tennessee since March 4th; he’s now missed 7 matches.
This is the million dollar question for a Tennessee team that’s already incurred some setbacks this season. Blaise Bicknell – quite embarrassingly for the Tennessee program – was never eligible and Martim Prata, Tennessee’s #3 player last season, has struggled to find that same form this season. The third blow of not having Monday healthy was clearly one that knocked Tennessee out of the national title contender conversation. They lost to Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. Monday hasn’t played singles for Tennessee since March 4th; he’s now missed 7 matches.
2. Can Kentucky improve their doubles point?
Kentucky’s doubles has been an achilles heel this season. They’re 29-21 in dual matches and have been mixing up teams throughout the season. Most recently, they’ve settled on an interesting configuration that excludes doubles All-American, Gabriel Diallo. Even without Monday in the lineup, Tennessee is likely to field two strong pairs: NCAA champs Walton/Harper and Hudd/Mitsui who are 20-8 on the season.
3. Who is Tennessee’s #6?
Even with a healthy Monday in the lineup, Tennessee has struggled to land on a consistent 6 players in the lineup. Walton, Monday, Hudd, Mitsui, Diaz are your 5 locks. But who’s their best option at 6? Prata is an unimpressive 4-7 in dual matches, Gannon is 5-4, and Harper is 3-0. Of the three, Harper has actually looked the best getting straight-set wins over Beasley of South Carolina and Bonetto of Florida but he’s also struggled with health. Tennessee can afford the questions at this position when Monday is in the lineup but without him, you have to play two of these three guys at 5 & 6 – that’s where things get tough.
Even with a healthy Monday in the lineup, Tennessee has struggled to land on a consistent 6 players in the lineup. Walton, Monday, Hudd, Mitsui, Diaz are your 5 locks. But who’s their best option at 6? Prata is an unimpressive 4-7 in dual matches, Gannon is 5-4, and Harper is 3-0. Of the three, Harper has actually looked the best getting straight-set wins over Beasley of South Carolina and Bonetto of Florida but he’s also struggled with health. Tennessee can afford the questions at this position when Monday is in the lineup but without him, you have to play two of these three guys at 5 & 6 – that’s where things get tough.
Projected Lineups
Players in bold are projected to win by UTR.
I don’t expect to see any modifications to Kentucky’s singles lineup; they’ve been pretty consistent all season. I’m going to – unfortunately – assume that Monday doesn’t play this match. I think if he was close to healthy we would’ve seen him play, at minimum, doubles this past weekend. If Monday does play then obviously he’ll slot in at #2 and everyone else will move down pushing Gannon out of the lineup.
Prediction
Kentucky 4-3
The weather in Lexington looks cold and wet so they’ll play this match on Kentucky’s four indoor courts. That should help the hometown team as I expect they’ll get a good crowd - at least for doubles. I think the Monday absence will be too much for Tennessee to overcome. The Wildcats will ride the crowd momentum to winning doubles, #2, #4, and #5. It wouldn’t surprise me if Draxl vs. Walton goes unfinished despite only having 4 courts.Women: #3 NC State at #14 Virginia
Time: Sunday, April 10th at 1:00pm ET
Time: Sunday, April 10th at 1:00pm ET
Overview
The ACC has five women’s teams in the top 15. Two of those teams, #3 NC State and #14 Virginia, face off this weekend in Charlottesville. I’m really excited for this match because I think it will definitively tell us if Virginia, who looked like a top 8 team early in the season, is truly at that level and if NC State is a legit national title contender. NC State is 4-17 against the Cavaliers and has only won once on the road so they’ll be eager to make a dent in that record.
3 key questions
1. How does NC State rebound?
NC State is coming off of a heartbreaking weekend where they dropped two 4-3 decisions to UNC and Duke at home. In both of those matches they lost 4 singles matches at 1, 2, 4, and 5. This past weekend was the first real disappointment for an NC State squad who had ascended to a program-best #2 ranking and only had lost once this season. The Wolfpack certainly faltered in both of their matches this past weekend; they had chances to win both matches against their in-state rivals but were outclassed down the homestretch. How the Wolfpack bounces back against a top 15 opponent on the road will tell us if this squad has the resiliency to win a NCAA title.
NC State is coming off of a heartbreaking weekend where they dropped two 4-3 decisions to UNC and Duke at home. In both of those matches they lost 4 singles matches at 1, 2, 4, and 5. This past weekend was the first real disappointment for an NC State squad who had ascended to a program-best #2 ranking and only had lost once this season. The Wolfpack certainly faltered in both of their matches this past weekend; they had chances to win both matches against their in-state rivals but were outclassed down the homestretch. How the Wolfpack bounces back against a top 15 opponent on the road will tell us if this squad has the resiliency to win a NCAA title.
2. Will we see Alana Smith?
The success NC State has had this season is unprecedented for the program. It’s even more outstanding when you consider that they’re playing without last season’s #2 singles player and 3x doubles All-American, Alana Smith. Coach Simon Earnshaw alluded to potentially seeing her in action this season after she suffered a foot injury in the winter. As other previously injured players start to return to their rosters like Dana Guzman of Oklahoma and Naomi Cheong of USC, Alana Smith is really the last remaining unknown. This NC State team clearly doesn’t need Smith in the lineup to be an elite team but it would surely provide a much-needed boost after a disappointing weekend.
3. Can Virginia’s top 3 step up?
Starting the dual season I thought Virginia had one of the strongest top 3s in the country; that hasn’t been true. Of course, Virginia has the best player in college tennis with Emma Navarro at #1 but, shockingly, its worst singles position is #3 singles (56%). It’s the only position with a win record below 60%. Natasha Subhash hasn’t looked like her freshman or sophomore self but she’s been solid playing primarily at #2. The main reason for the decline at #3 has been because of the inconsistency and absence of freshman Elaine Chervinksy. Chervinsky is 7-3 in dual matches but has only played in two dual matches since the ITA National Indoors. Virginia needs all three of Navarro, Subhash, and Chervinksy playing their best tennis to upset NC State.
Starting the dual season I thought Virginia had one of the strongest top 3s in the country; that hasn’t been true. Of course, Virginia has the best player in college tennis with Emma Navarro at #1 but, shockingly, its worst singles position is #3 singles (56%). It’s the only position with a win record below 60%. Natasha Subhash hasn’t looked like her freshman or sophomore self but she’s been solid playing primarily at #2. The main reason for the decline at #3 has been because of the inconsistency and absence of freshman Elaine Chervinksy. Chervinsky is 7-3 in dual matches but has only played in two dual matches since the ITA National Indoors. Virginia needs all three of Navarro, Subhash, and Chervinksy playing their best tennis to upset NC State.
Projected Lineups
Players in bold are projected to win by UTR.
I’m going to assume Chervinsky plays. I see the irony in predicting she plays but not Monday. I think it’s different because Chervinksy has played sporadically over the last few weeks, even if minimally. I’ll assume she’s had enough rest from the Miami match and she hasn’t played since then because Virginia didn’t need her to win. Additionally, you never know what Virginia is going to play at #5 and #6 between Shaikh, Ziodato, and O’Dell. I think UVA’s best chance is to split at the bottom two positions by taking #6; NC State’s Sophie Abrams at #5 has been really strong at that position (12-3) and I don’t see any of Virginia’s bottom 3 beating her. So, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Virginia sacrifice #5 by playing O’Dell there and pushing Shaikh down to #6. NC State has played this same top 6 pretty consistently all season.
Prediction
NC State 5-2
This would’ve been a toss-up if these two teams played at Indoors. But the teams have since taken divergent paths. Virginia has struggled with health and took a pretty shocking loss (at minimum, by scoreline) to Miami at home while NC State has strung together one of their best seasons in program history. I’m going to predict NC State takes the doubles point (they've only lost 2 doubles points all season) and finds singles wins at #3, #4, and #5. If UVA wants to re-announce their arrival as a competitive top 8 team, their path to victory is doubles, #1 Navarro, #2 Subhash, and one of #4 Munera or #6 Shaikh.
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