NCAA Sweet 16 Predictions
Who do you have on upset alert? What matches will you be watching most closely? Let me know on Twitter @JTweetsTennis!
Women’s Predictions
In 2019, the first and only previous time the Super Regional format was used, all top 8 women’s teams advanced to the QF – it was totally chalk. The ability to host is a huge advantage for top 8 seeds and in many of this year’s predictions it’s ultimately the factor that tips a match to the home team.
(1) North Carolina vs. (16) Florida
Both teams looked strong on opening weekend. I was particularly impressed with Morra’s form at #1 for UNC; she was up 7-5, 4-2 over freshman sensation Sarah Hamner.
Upset Chance: 20%
Upset Calculus: Florida has a pathway to win this match, albeit a narrow one. They need to win doubles, #1 Kessler, #2 Zein and whoever is at #6 (either Dahlstrom or Shelton).
Prediction: North Carolina 4-1
(8) Pepperdine vs. (9) Miami
This is one of the most intriguing R16 matches on the women’s side. Pepperdine, despite the talent on paper, hasn’t lived up to expectations this season. That changed this past weekend as they were totally dominant in 5 of their 6 singles matches against USC. Notably, Janice Tjen, playing at #1 for the first time all season, was beating a very in-form Salma Ewing and Pachkaleva and Flores seem to finally be rounding into form. Miami has been strong all season competing week-in, week-out in a tough ACC conference. That resilience paid off as they bounced back against UCF in the second round after dropping the doubles point. The Hurricanes are coming in a tad depleted, though, as they are without Diana Khodan (#5/#6) in the lineup and only have 6 eligible players for the weekend.
Upset Chance: 35%
Upset Calculus: It starts with doubles for Miami, and strong performances from their most reliable points: #2 Achong, #3 Pfennig, #5 Boch-Collins. The problem for Miami is that Pepperdine is equally strong there in singles with Fukuda, Zaar, and Broadus. I’ll be curious to see if Pachkaleva (#4) and Flores (#6) can continue their good form.
Prediction: Pepperdine 4-1
(5) Virginia vs. (12) Oklahoma State
Both of these teams will come into this match with a lot of confidence. Virginia held off a dangerous Princeton team – the Cavaliers didn’t drop a set and were particularly impressive at #5 and #6, two positions they’ll need for a deep run in this tournament. Oklahoma State also got a huge confidence booster knocking off a likely under-ranked UCLA team 4-2 in Stillwater.
Upset Chance: 45%
Upset Calculus: Other than Navarro at #1 for Virginia, Oklahoma State can legitimately win 6 of the 7 remaining points. The Cowgirls best path is to take doubles, split #2 or #3 (likely #2 Sawangkaew who’s been excellent as a freshman), #4 Orpana, and #5 Miyamoto. All of #2-#6 feel like tossups to me so I lean in favor of the home team but this match has 4-3 written all over it!
Prediction: Virginia 4-3
(4) Texas vs. (13) Auburn
Texas continued its fabulous form from the Big 12 tournament and only lost 9 games in 3 completed singles matches against top-20 foe Michigan this past weekend. Auburn had quite the different path to the R16. Auburn played arguably the best match of the weekend in the second round knocking off Georgia Tech in a 4-3 thriller. Auburn has had a historic season and won’t want to see it end as they look to upset the defending national champions.
Upset Chance: 15%
Upset Calculus: Beating Texas, whoever you are, starts with winning #5 and #6. Texas has two freshmen there with Zamarripa and Ovrootsky. I think Auburn gets it done at #5 with senior Yu Chen but can’t get #6. To make up for it, they’ll need to take doubles, #2 Arseneault and a career performance from either #3 Ansari or #4 Axon. The Texas win calculus is straightforward at this point in the season: doubles, #1 Stearns, #3 Zeynalova, and #4 Chavatipon – I’m hard-pressed to see how Auburn disrupts that rhythm.
Prediction: Texas 4-1
(3) Duke vs. (14) Georgia
These are two teams who are on very different trajectories as we enter the postseason. Duke ended the regular season with their first regular season win over #1 UNC since 2018 and followed it up with an ACC championship. Georgia has struggled with injuries and absences down the home stretch. The Dawgs are without their #1 player, Lea Ma, which is an impossible place to be in at this point in the season.
Upset Chance: 25%
Upset Calculus: It starts with doubles for Georgia. Lea Ma wasn’t a staple in their doubles lineup so they’re not impacted there. In singles, they need freshman Mell Reasco to upset Chloe Beck at #1 which is a tall order and then get a win from fifth-year Coppoc over freshman Jackson and find a win from Nirundorn vs. Coleman in an all-freshman battle at #6.
Prediction: Duke 4-2
(6) NC State vs. (11) Cal
I’ll be honest: I had Cal upsetting NC State in my original bracket. I wasn’t feeling confident in NC State’s trajectory after falling to Duke, UNC, UVA x2 in the final weeks of the season. The rebounded quite nicely even after facing adversity this past weekend. The Wolfpack dropped the doubles point for just the third time this season against Tennessee but came roaring back to win the first 4 singles matches. I can’t bet against this team at home who’s been solid all season and faced the best teams each and every week. Cal…what to make of this volatile Cal team? Without their wins over Pepperdine, I’m not sure they’d be here. The Bears crashed out to ASU in the QF of the Pac 12 tournament and didn’t look particularly strong in beating Texas Tech in the second round.
Upset chance: 40%
Upset calculus: This is probably the only upset calculus that doesn’t include doubles because, well…Cal won’t win doubles. They’ll need a stellar performance from Giavara who’s capable of losing to or beating anyone. They’ll also need to rely on points at #2 and #4 from freshmen Alsola and Wiersholm. Then, if they pull off the upset, it would most likely come down to a 3hr+ win from either Viller Moeller at #5 or Rosenqvist at #3.
Prediction: NC State 4-2
(7) Texas A&M vs. Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is the only non-seeded team to advance to the Sweet 16 after the Commodores upset #10 Ohio State in Columbus. They’ll go to College Station to take on #7 Texas A&M who they’ve lost to twice this season. Most recently in the SEC QFs, Texas A&M took doubles and won easily (or was winning) at #1-#4. Vanderbilt won at #5 and #6 where they match up nicely with the Aggies who are weaker relatively in those positions. If Texas A&M advances, they’ll have won their conference and made the NCAA QFs without a single top 10 win on their resume.
Upset chance: 10%
Upset calculus: Like Cal, if Vanderbilt pulls off the upset they’ll need to do it without doubles given how strong TAMU has been this season. #5 and #6, just like the SEC QFs, are an absolute must and they’ll need to flip #3 and #4; Texas A&M looked far too dominant at #1 and #2 the last time these two teams played.
Prediction: TAMU 4-1
(2) Oklahoma vs. (15) Stanford
Everybody has this match circled. The Cinderella team of the year, Oklahoma, takes on the most decorated women’s tennis program in history. Stanford is always dangerous and we’ve literally seen them win NCAA tournaments as the #15 seed before. If you need any more storylines to make this match compelling: former and All-American and #1 player for Stanford’s 2018 and 2019 NCAA championships, Michaela Gordon, is back in the lineup after not playing all season. She looked good in doubles this weekend but does she play singles (listed at #5)...we’ll find out? On the Oklahoma front, they’re inexplicably without their superstar freshman Chanta who had been moved up to the #2 position in the submitted lineups. She’s apparently playing the Southeast Asian Games and will be absent from the entirety of the NCAA tournament.
Both teams had different paths to get here: Stanford looked very strong against a UCSB team that they had previously lost to this season in a shocking upset. Oklahoma found themselves dangerously close to an upset; he Sooners played a disappointing doubles point and dropped matches at #4 and #5 before pulling out the 4-3 win over Arizona State.
Upset chance: 50%
Upset calculus: Things change drastically without Chanta who would’ve been a tough out for any #2 in the country. Without her, Stanford is favored at #2 and #3 with Yepifanova and Blake against the Corley sisters. Additionally, with Gordon back in the lineup in doubles, Stanford needs to take that point. The question is then can Stanford find a fourth point? #1 Connie Ma is capable of beating Sleeth but that’s a tall order for the freshman on the road. It likely needs to come at #4 if they pull Houghton and play Gordon or #5 with freshman Xu over Pisareva. This is a total toss-up to me. I’ve seen Oklahoma find points all season from different positions and bounce back from the jaws of defeat so it’s tough to bet against that. Also, I expect a rowdy crowd in attendance and that's something Stanford, and in particular its 3 freshmen, haven’t faced all season. That will heavily favor Oklahoma. On a neutral site, Stanford wins this match and I’d feel confident about that. At home…give me the Sooners to continue making history.
Prediction: Oklahoma 4-3
Men’s Predictions
Unlike the women, there were actually two top 8 men’s seeds upset in 2019. I think we’ll see something similar this year with many intriguing R16 matches.
(1) TCU vs. NC State
Upset Chance: 15%
Prediction: TCU 4-1
(8) Kentucky vs. (9) Wake Forest
This appears to be one of the closest matches in the R16. I actually expected Wake Forest to lose to Auburn who was coming off a strong SEC finish but they fared quite well winning 4-1. One of the things that makes this matchup so interesting is that the teams strengths are in very different positions. Kentucky is top heavy while Wake Forest has plenty of depth and has really struggled to find wins consistently at the top of the lineup. Without Moroni in the lineup for the Demon Deacons and the fact that it’s played in Lexington, I lean Kentucky. I expect them to get doubles and 3 of the top 4 singles matches but Wake will get on the board at 5 and 6.
Upset Chance: 40%
Prediction: Kentucky 4-2
(5) Michigan vs. (12) Texas
Michigan is having their most successful season in decades. The Wolverines have wins over #1 TCU, #3 Baylor, #4 Ohio State x2. They also won their first Big Ten tournament this year so they’re very confident coming into NCAAs. If much has broken right for the Wolverines this season, it’s been the opposite for Texas. The 2021 NCAA semi-finalists have struggled with health all season with multiple guys out for several matches at a time. Notably, #1 player Eliot Spizzirri has played with one wrist all season, reduced to slicing all his backhands and Bailly, Braswell, and Harper have all had injuries. When healthy, this team is talented enough to go very deep and I actually predicted them to upset Michigan when the brackets first came out but Braswell, who is listed at #2 for the Longhorns, didn’t play in either the Big 12 tournament or the opening weekend of NCAAs which isn’t a great sign for them. I’m assuming we don’t see him in action this weekend either which is likely the nail in Texas’ coffin.
Upset Chance: 40%
Prediction: Michigan 4-2
(4) Ohio State vs. (13) USC
The midwest regionals feel primed for at least one upset this weekend and if Texas doesn’t have Braswell then that upset could come in Columbus. Ohio State impressed early in the season with a dominant indoors stretch at home but have struggled in the biggest moments of the season: Indoors semifinal and Big Ten tournament final. USC will enter this match with momentum. The Trojans won the Pac 12 tournament and are now fully healthy: they have freshman Wojtek Marek back in the lineup at #3. Marek has been out since mid-march. If this match is outdoors, I slightly favor the Trojans to pull off the upset on the strength of Dostanic and the bottom half of the lineup.
Upset Chance: 51%
Prediction: USC 4-3
(3) Baylor vs. Stanford
Stanford heads to Waco after upsetting #14 Harvard 4-3 in Boston. They’ll face a Baylor team who looks vulnerable, especially after a very close 4-2 win over Texas A&M. In most years, I’d think Baylor could get tripped up here but the fact that this match is in Waco with an assuredly rowdy crowd drastically tips the scale in Baylor’s favor; Stanford hasn’t played in an environment like that all year and has disappointed at the two other team tournaments this year (indoors, Pac 12 tournament). I don’t have any faith that this Stanford team can muster the courage to take down Baylor in Waco.
Upset Chance: 20%
Prediction: Baylor 4-1
(6) Tennessee vs. Florida State
Florida State was the biggest shock on the men’s side this weekend. The Seminoles knocked off #11 Georgia in Athens. Granted Georgia was without #3 singles player Tristan McCormick and with him, the Bulldogs likely win this match. Florida State will take on a Tennessee team who started the season strong but has struggled with injuries and form down the home stretch. The Vols look to be rounding into shape though with strong showings in singles after dropping the doubles point to Duke. Harper at #5 is a very vulnerable spot for Tennessee but I think that DNFs.
Upset Chance: 10%
Prediction: Tennessee 4-0
(7) Virginia vs. (10) South Carolina
South Carolina heads to Charlottesville after advancing through a tricky regional with Washington and Pepperdine. UVA advanced very comfortably and should be fresh as they face the Gamecocks for the first time this season. There’s a lot of transitive property math that can be done on this match as South Carolina actually played an ACC-heavy schedule: they were 4-2 with the two losses coming to UNC and NC State, both teams UVA beat. South Carolina is strong in doubles and at #1-#4 singles but struggles down low. I like the Cavaliers to advance to the QFs with 3 wins from 2, 3, 5, or 6.
Upset Chance: 35%
Prediction: Virginia 4-1
(2) Florida vs. (15) North Carolina
North Carolina has absolutely exceeded expectations this season. The Tarheels lost four of their top six from last year’s Indoors championships squad, including Blumberg and Hijikata. But this squad with a lot of new faces has actually matched last season’s postseason: ACC finals and NCAA R16. Their run will stop there as they face defending NCAA champion Florida who looks to be peaking at exactly the right time. Florida will have no issues with this Tarheel team.
Upset Chance: 5%
Prediction: Florida 4-0
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