Matches of the Week - Week #4

Welcome back to some regularly scheduled programming! Last week, I previewed the ITA Kickoff Weekend as a substitute to the usual two matches of the week. In total, I got 14 of the 15 men’s winners correct and 12 of the 15 women’s winners – better than Gruskin, so I’ll take it!

After Kickoff Weekend, it officially feels like the regular season is underway. This week is jam-packed with exciting matches between top teams. Shoutout to all the coaches who use this stretch before ITA Indoors to schedule as aggressively as possible. It makes it more fun for fans to follow and gives us more data points heading into Indoors. Let’s hope the snowstorm doesn’t impact any of the matches slated for this weekend! Thankfully, there's no snow in the forecast in California and I'm looking forward to attending Stanford/USC and Stanford/UCLA. As always, send all feedback to @JTweetsTennis.

Men: #6 Virginia at #5 Ohio State
Time: Sunday, February 6th at 12pm ET

Overview

There are so many good matches on the men’s side this week so it was brutal to only pick one. Ultimately, I had to go with #6 Virginia facing off against #5 Ohio State in Columbus because of the narrative and matchup intrigue. 

Last year, a young and untested Virginia squad traveled to Columbus for the ITA Kickoff Weekend. The Hoos announced their re-arrival to college tennis as they took down the Buckeyes 4-2. It was only the second time Ohio State had lost at home since April of 2003. To add salt in the wound, it was also the christening opening weekend for their new Ty Tucker Tennis Center. In many ways, this loss derailed Ohio State’s entire season. The combination of not getting ranked wins at ITA Indoors and being forced by their conference to play a Big Ten only schedule resulted in Ohio State’s ranking plummeting; they entered the NCAA tournament ranked #35. The Buckeyes will remember last season well and want to get some sweet revenge on a more seasoned UVA team.

For Virginia, they have the benefit of knowing the conditions and being one year more experienced – this team has come a long way in a year. The one new wrinkle this year will be the addition of a rowdy Columbus crowd; last season’s match was played without fans due to Covid-19 protocols and that surely benefited the visiting team. UVA knows they have to play their best to do what hasn’t been done in decades: beat Ohio State at home in back-to-back years.

3 key questions

1. How does each team rebound from their Friday match?
For both teams, this weekend will be their first real tests of the season. Ohio State takes on #1 Tennessee on Friday while #6 Virginia begins their four match road trip at #11 Kentucky. I anticipate that the results of those Friday matches will play heavily into the respective team’s attitudes in this second match. If either of those matches are canceled because of the snow storm, it’ll be interesting to see how these two teams debut against their first real test of the season.

2. Can Virginia’s top of the lineup compete?
Ohio State has arguably the best top 2 in the country with #5 Matej Vocel and #21 Cannon Kingsley. Conversely, Virginia has been playing sophomores #13 Chris Rodesch and #52 Inkai Montes at #1 and #2, both of whom are untested this high up in the lineup. No one doubts Virginia’s depth but it’s fair to question whether #1 and #2 will be vulnerable when facing off against elite times like Ohio State. We should learn a lot this weekend about how well Rodesch and Montes can defend those positions and what sort of results we should expect from the sophomores moving forward.

3. Who emerges from the middle of the Ohio State lineup?
Ohio State’s top 2 are set: #5 Matej Vocel and #21 Cannon Kingsley in some order. There’s then a handful of players competing for the rest of the lineup. Based on the fall results, it appeared that #14 JJ Tracy would secure his spot at #3 and that is, in fact, where he played during Kickoff Weekend. You can expect to see some combination of JJ Tracy, James Trotter, Jake van Emburgh, and Justin Boulais competing for #3-#5 with Robert Cash always an option at #6. Jake Van Emburgh, the transfer from Oklahoma, started a few matches this season at #3 but he hasn’t played in their last 3 matches. Virginia is incredibly solid at #3-#6 so, whoever Ohio State plays in those positions will have a tough test and we should learn a lot about who from this group of guys is looking to step up to secure their spot.

Projected Lineups

These lineups are what each team played last weekend at Kickoff Weekend, with the exception of van Emburgh who didn’t play. It wouldn’t be an Ohio State lineup if we didn’t see some Ty Tucker chicanery, but I’m not sure what exactly it will be. If I had to guess, I think he slots Jake van Emburgh at #4. Van Emburgh hasn’t played in their last few matches but I think the match calculus for Ohio State needs to rely on getting wins at 1-3 and give themselves their best shot at snagging a win at 4-6. Ty Tucker will want to avoid a rematch of Trotter versus von der Schulenburg, a match JVDS won in November. I think Tracy has a better shot at knocking off Botzer at 3 and you hope you can sneak a win from van Emburgh or Trotter.

For UVA, I don’t think we’ll see any deviation from their Kickoff lineup. That 4-6 lineup is as good, if not better, than every other team in the country.

Prediction

Ohio State 4-3

It’s funny because the match calculus for each team is basically identically flipped. If you’re Ohio State, you’re looking for a sweep at the top of the lineup. If you’re Virginia, you feel best about sweeping the bottom half. I actually feel more confident that Virginia could get a win in the top 3 than I am in Ohio State’s ability to break through the JVDS/Goetz/Ross trio. Despite that, I still lean towards the Buckeyes. They have a narrower path to victory but I favor them in doubles and at 1-3. The intangibles of the home court advantage, a rowdy crowd, and a hunger to prove themselves puts the Buckeyes over the edge.

Women: #17 Old Dominion at #13 Florida
Time: Thursday, February 3rd at 5pm ET

Overview

File this one under “matches I didn’t expect to write about a few weeks ago!” Wow, what an incredible Kickoff Weekend for Old Dominion. The Monarchs traveled to Atlanta as the lowest seed in the region and knocked off host, and then #12, Georgia Tech 4-3 in the first round and followed it up with another 4-3 win over Ole Miss to advance to the ITA National Indoors for the first time in program history. Old Dominion certainly feels like the cinderella story coming out of the weekend but they’ll need to come down quickly as they take a road trip through Florida with away matches at #13 Florida and #23 Miami.  

The Monarchs will be flying high as they head to Gainesville but, based on last weekend’s results, it appears that Florida will be their toughest test to date. The Gators steamrolled through their kickoff weekend regional with the help of several new additions to their roster. This will be a great opportunity for Florida to flex their muscles and put the rest of the country on notice.

3 key questions

1. Is Florida back?
The second-winningest program in women’s college tennis with 7 NCAA team titles has had a rough last few years. Since winning the 2017 NCAA team title, the Gators have fallen in the second round of the NCAA tournament for 3 consecutive years. To put that into perspective, the Gators hadn’t lost in the second round since 2004. These past few seasons have been a far cry from the NCAA-winning caliber that Head Coach Roland Thornqvist has grown accustomed to. This year, however, feels promising for the Gators. They return several senior leaders in Mccartney Kessler and Marlee Zein and bring in experienced transfers in Emma Shelton (South Carolina) and Carly Briggs (Tennessee). That experience is complemented by freshmen Bente Spee and Alicia Dudeney. This is Florida’s first big test of the season and it should tell us a lot about how deep of a run the Gators could make in May as they look to break that disappointing second round streak. 

2. How reliant is ODU on Starodubtseva and Sasnouskaya?
Starodubtseva and Sasnouskaya, the third-ranked doubles pair in the country, are my pick to win the NCAA doubles title. You can read that prediction, and more about this duo, here. Ironically, the duo didn’t get a doubles win last weekend – their two matches went unfinished. They did, however, go 4-0 in singles at the top two singles positions. #71 Starodubtseva and #116 Sasnouskaya can compete with anyone at the top of the lineup but what I’m looking to see this weekend is what happens if ODU doesn’t sweep the top 2 positions? Can they find other wins throughout the lineup? They were able to against Georgia Tech and Mississippi but they’re going to need other players to contribute consistently in singles to compete against the elite teams and can’t rely on wins at #1 and #2 in every match. I’m looking forward to learning more about this team’s depth. 

3. How good is Gator freshman Alicia Dudeney?
Alicia Dudeney, the freshman from the UK, played at #2 and #3 singles this past weekend. The former Junior Wimbledon Quarterfinalist had an impressive fall and currently has a 14-6 singles record. Despite that record, I wasn’t blown away by the quality of her wins. I haven’t seen the freshman play but if she’s capable of holding down the #2 position and thereby pushes Zein, Shelton, and Briggs down a spot then that will make the Gators very dangerous. This weekend’s matchup against ODU’s strong top of the lineup should give us a good indication of her level.

Projected Lineups

I’d be surprised if we saw any lineups too different from what we saw this past weekend. As you can see based on the UTRs, Old Dominion might struggle at the bottom half of the lineup.

Prediction

Florida 5-2

I think the bubble bursts a little bit for Old Dominion against the Gators. Their path to victory feels pretty narrow: doubles, 1, 2, and one more. This will seemingly be the recipe for their season which is why I called out their depth as one of the key questions. I actually expect Starodubtseva and Sasnouskaya to both get victories. Kessler at #1 for the Gators has looked vulnerable to start the season. I don’t think Old Dominion gets doubles, despite having the #3 ranked team in the country and I expect Florida’s depth pays off at doubles positions #2 and #3 and then they get singles victories at the bottom four positions.

I’ll be honest, I don’t feel great about this pick; there’s certainly a world where ODU gets doubles, 1, 2, and finds another win maybe at 3 or 4. That becomes even more likely if one of Zein, Shelton, or Briggs doesn’t play. Ultimately, I’ll lean towards the team with more experience in these types of matches on their home courts. I expect ODU will keep it close early in singles after losing dubs but Florida eventually pulls away.